A lot of people didn’t want Donald Trump to become the next president of the United States.
A number of European leaders clearly didn’t want the Republican to win it. There are plenty of people pushing global agendas who didn’t want that outcome either. And let’s not forget the celebrities and the people in the media. But 72 million Americans, more than half of those who voted, did want the 45th President back for a second time.
There will be plenty of debate about why Trump won. In fact it’s already started. But from this perspective, there are a few simple reasons.
The Democrats’ campaign let themselves down on a number of fronts. Firstly, having sidestepped the traditional primaries, Kamala Harris never quite felt like a legitimate candidate. Secondly, her inability to speak without a script saw her turn down opportunities to speak to some big media audiences. Thirdly, she chose not to campaign on her record as vice president, nor on the policy framework she would intend to pursue. Instead, her strategy was primarily to attack Trump, and thereafter rely on celebrity endorsements and gimmicks.
By contrast, Trump turned up at every step of the primary process, and every interview opportunity, including a three-hour stint on Joe Rogan’s podcast. He took on town halls and fields full of people at every opportunity, including eight rallies in the last two days of campaigning. Sure, he attacked the incumbents. But he spent as much, if not more time, talking about his version of his past record, and his future focus on fixing America’s problems.
And it worked. Let’s make no mistake about it. This is a massive victory. For the first time since 2004, the Republicans won the popular vote. They look set to win the House of Representatives, have won the Senate and the presidency. It’s a colossal mandate.
While it’s a bad day for the Democrats, it’s also a massive ‘punch on the nose’ for those championing the world’s causes. At the top of that list is the United Nations, but they’re joined by the climate activists, the champions for Nato and the World Economic Forum. It’s a kick in the guts for Hollywood and a celebrity culture that sought to influence politics. And let’s not forget the broadcast television networks in the US and around the world who championed the Democratic campaign, and lost.
These are the TV networks that want us to accept their views on the Middle East, Ukraine and the economy. They want to convince us of their views on climate and vaccinations. But their platform for doing so is in tatters.
Those TV networks now need to rethink their coverage of politics. But they also need to rethink their role in society’s commentary. A few days before the election, they became exercised by a poll result from the state of Iowa. Apparently Harris was tipped to win the state, usually a safe Republican asset. The media couldn’t hide their celebratory tone as they considered what other safe states might turn against the Republicans.
As we now know, Trump won Iowa and he won well. He scored 56% of the vote to Harris’ 43%. The poll was wrong. But they broadcast it anyway.
The US media, particularly the broadcast media, need to learn all over again how to listen, understand and talk to the half of the electorate that don’t represent their own very partisan views.
While the traditional media have to count the election result as one of their worst days, the new media won, and won big. Individuals rather than networks carried the election with their coverage and their backing of the successful candidate. People broadcasting one-person shows like Megan Kelly, Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan and others proved that media is no longer changing. It has changed. Elon Musk’s X, formerly Twitter, provides a platform for non-network news operators to access the masses. And while there are plenty of people who haven’t found those channels yet, you can bet that this election outcome will change that too.
I heard one commentator calling the election result the “revenge of the working-class American”. Let’s not forget that Trump and his supporters were called ‘garbage’ by the outgoing president. They were likened to Nazis by the left-leaning media.
Instead, those Trump supporters are just ordinary people living ordinary lives, trying to hold on to their jobs, bring up their kids, and make their mortgage payments each week.
As Trump repeatedly confirmed on the campaign trail, those ordinary people feel poorer than they did four years ago. They’ve been dogged by inflation, they’re worried about illegal immigration, and they’re concerned about the crime in their neighbourhoods.
I’m not surprised by the election result. In July of this year I drove 2200km through the American South. Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana. I was there just after the disastrous Biden debate and during the decision to appoint Harris. I enjoyed talking to the locals, kicking off a discussion about politics, and then standing back to see what happened. Even then, there was a mood. That mood wasn’t for Biden and it certainly wasn’t for Harris.
Of course there’s plenty of coverage here about how the election result might be bad for our country. It’s clear that Trump’s tariff regime might knock us around a bit in the short term. But there’s a bigger picture to consider too.
Right now, the world needs a strong America.
The level of chaos in the world is at a level that most of us haven’t seen before. And while we’ve seen economic shocks or even regional wars before, the many layers of global turmoil are unique in our lifetimes.
For the first time, we are seeing economic, structural and geopolitical crises colliding at the same time. As a result, the uncertainty is palpable.
Economically, the world continues to try to recover from the post-Covid economic shocks, which came as a result of poor economic management on the part of governments. The result was too much debt and three years of inflation, whose nasty surprises are now baked in for good. In other words, that $7 coffee is never going back to $5. So while the inflation monster is now back in its box, those people struggling with the revised cost of living will continue to do so.
The structural factors mainly affect business and governments, which in turn affect people, jobs and confidence. Across sectors including retail, housing, construction, media, motor vehicles, and technology, major structural change is impacting the way we will do things in the future. At a government level, health, education, and debt are major issues in most of the countries we would call friends. All this, before we talk about Artificial Intelligence.
But it is the geopolitical outlook that’s the scariest of all, and perhaps the area where a strong America is most needed. Crisis after crisis is seeing governments unable to cope. The Ukraine war wages on and the Middle East conflict continues to widen and deepen. Protesters supporting the Palestinians or the Israelis meet face to face in London or Belgium. In Europe and North America, illegal immigration is at the centre of crime waves that have police and governments turning on their own people as they try to take control.
Meanwhile, the champions of the many causes are coming under pressure. Human nature is such that when things are going well, we tend to be more accepting of those challenging the status quo. But when things get tough, those agendas get less traction as we focus on survival. Fifteen years of economic boom coupled with the Covid period where people became frightened and compliant, allowed many of those causes to claim plenty of territory.
The World Economic Forum, the World Health Organisation and the climate industry too would all like to force us to change the way we live. Corporations and governments seeking to meet expectations of others have become distracted by ESG, DEI and the need to control “misinformation”.
Freedom of speech is being challenged somewhere around the world daily. In Australia this week we’re seeing the Government attempting to introduce a ‘misinformation’ bill.
We’re seeing governments having a crack at individuals because of something on social media. But as we’ve learned, the disinformation is seldom coming from “we, the people”. As we reflect on the Covid pandemic, we know that much of the disinformation is peddled by governments. And as we consider the recent outcomes of the US election, we also know that the major TV networks are as guilty of misinformation as anyone.
And so, as times get tougher, and as a result of these overlapping crises, the people, understandably, are pushing back. Centre-right parties across Europe have led the way in most of the year’s electoral contests. In South America, El Salvador’s new president has taken an extreme response to their crime wave, and Argentina’s new president is one of the most aggressive in pursuing economic reform. The new Dutch Government is pushing back on immigration and others are following.
The people, newly motivated by souring economies, a depressing outlook, and the threat of outside controls impacting their lives are pushing back. The people, the working class, are saying, “we’ve had enough”.
And that’s what we saw in America this week. And so we shouldn’t be surprised. It’s the continuation of a few trends. A trend that will continue to challenge a new president.
From my own perspective, this perfect global storm of economy, structural change, and geopolitical mayhem tells me one thing. New Zealand is still one of the best places in the world to be right now.
And so, if you’re one of those people getting agitated because of a few te reo phrases in the news hour, or a new MP who dresses like a circus juggler, just think for a moment.
We don’t know how lucky we are!
This article first appeared in The New Zealand Herald, Saturday 9th November, 2024.